Sindh Tass Aftermath: India’s Water Strategy and Its Implications for Pakistan

The Sindh Tass Aftermath has stirred deep anxieties in South Asia, especially in Pakistan, following India’s controversial move to suspend the decades-old Treaty of Indus River between India and Pakistan. Originally brokered by the World Bank in 1960, the treaty had withstood wars, tensions, and diplomatic rifts between India and Pakistan.

However, recent Sindh Tass aftermath escalations — particularly after the brutal terrorist attack in Pahgam, claiming 26 Hindu lives, has sharply escalated regional tensions, prompting India to reconsider its Indus Waters Treaty obligations—sparking alarm across South Asia over potential shifts in long-standing water-sharing dynamics.

In response to India’s attempt to link Pakistan with the Pahalgam attack, the Senate unanimously passed a resolution rejecting the accusations. The NSC denounced India’s politicization of the tragedy and reaffirmed Pakistan’s readiness to counter any form of aggression, including water warfare.

What Is the Sindh Tass Treaty?

Sindh Tass, another term for the Indus River Treaty, governs the water-sharing of six rivers in the Indus Basin: the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Under the treaty:

India gained control of the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
Pakistan retained rights to the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

This allocation gave Pakistan nearly 80% of the total water flow, sustaining its agriculture and hydropower generation — particularly in Punjab and Sindh provinces.

Why Is IWT Suspension Significant?

The Sindh Tass Aftermath marks the first formal suspension attempt since the treaty’s inception. India’s move is seen as retaliation, blaming Pakistan for harboring militant groups responsible for cross-border terrorism — a claim Islamabad denies. In response, Pakistan has warned that interference in Pakistan water flow would be interpreted as an “act of war.”

Sindh Tass aftermath raises the critical question: Can India actually divert or stop Pk water supply from the Indus Basin? And if so, how? Experts assert that India cannot abruptly stop the Indus waters due to insufficient infrastructure.

While long-term diversion is technically possible, it would require massive projects that may take over 10 years, incur heavy costs, and risk waterlogging and ecological disruption.

Internal water tensions between Sindh and Punjab, including Punjab’s water theft, have weakened Pakistan’s stance, allowing foreign powers to exploit the divide. Ongoing protests are damaging Pakistan’s global image, while India’s strong ties with UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China leave Pakistan isolated.

Strategic Leverage and Limitations of Bharat

1. Run of River Projects

Most of India’s existing infrastructure on the western rivers comprises run of river (RoR) hydroelectric projects. These generate electricity without storing large volumes of water. While they allow temporary manipulation of flow, they do not have the capacity to stop water entirely.

2. Lack of Massive Storage Infrastructure

Bharat lacks sufficient reservoirs or storage dams to hold back the tens of billions of cubic meters that flow through the Indus river course, Chenab, and Jhelum annually. Without this capacity, the idea of diverting water of Sindhu on a significant scale — especially during monsoon or high-flow seasons — is logistically impractical in the short term.

3. Dry Season Impact

However, during the dry season, the story changes. Experts argue that India can impact flow timing and availability by:

Withholding water for short periods.
Modifying reservoir discharge schedules.
Delaying irrigation cycles.

Even minor disruptions during low-flow months could have serious consequences for Pakistan’s irrigation, drinking water, and power supply.

India’s Potential Moves Post-Suspension

1. Construction of New Dams and Barrages

India could now accelerate projects previously delayed by diplomatic protocols. Without the treaty’s requirement to notify Pakistan, India may build:

Storage dams
Diversion tunnels
Advanced hydropower stations

This could give India greater regulatory control over water flow — a long-standing goal among Indian water strategists.

2. Non-Disclosure of Hydrological Data

In the Sindh Tass aftermath, India’s suspension of the Treaty could lead to a complete halt in real-time hydrological data sharing. This data is vital for Pakistan’s flood forecasting and water management. Without it, sudden floods may occur without warning, significantly weakening Pakistan’s ability to prepare for and respond to water-related disasters.

3. Sudden Silt Flushing

Reservoirs in Himalayan rivers accumulate large quantities of silt. India could release this without warning, which can damage Pakistan’s irrigation channels, turbines, and agriculture.

4. Water as a Geopolitical Weapon

The concept of a “water bomb” — releasing built-up water suddenly to flood downstream areas — is a potential tactic, though risky. India would first have to flood its own reservoir systems and face domestic backlash, making this an unlikely but not impossible threat.

The Larger Picture: China’s Influence

It’s important to consider that India is also downstream of China, and rivers like the Brahmaputra and even the Indus originate in Tibet. China’s construction of massive dams on these rivers shows how upstream countries can dominate water politics. In a worst-case scenario, Pakistan and India could be caught in a hydrological pincer, with China and India both exercising upstream control.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?

The Sindh Tass Aftermath is more than just a treaty dispute; it’s a climate-security-diplomacy issue rolled into one. India’s current capacity to weaponize water is limited, but not nonexistent. What it does possess is geographic advantage, growing infrastructure, and strategic intent.

How Pakistan can tackle?

Seeking international mediation, especially from the World Bank.
Accelerating water conservation and storage strategies.
Preparing legally and diplomatically for a prolonged water dispute.

Conclusion: Sindh Taas Aftermath

In the end, water may prove to be the most dangerous weapon of the 21st century — especially in a region where two nuclear-armed nations are bound by shared rivers but divided by the legacy of the Two-Nation Theory, rooted in religious identity.

The April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam — attributed to militants linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba — became the flashpoint for India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Accusing Pakistan of harboring and supporting cross-border terrorism, India responded with swift diplomatic retaliation: severing ties, expelling diplomats, issuing visa bans, and launching security crackdowns.

The incident not only escalated tensions but turned water, once a source of life, into a tool of political and strategic warfare. Due to the complex Indus River Valley geography, it is infeasible for India to immediately block or divert major water flows.

The rugged terrain, elevation shifts, and deep gorges make construction of large-scale diversion infrastructure difficult, time-consuming, and costly, often requiring over a decade to implement effectively.

Sindh Tass Aftermath